Environment and National Security: Exploring Policy ‘Demand Signals’ and the Science Response

As geopolitical tensions rapidly rise and public and media attention is increasingly distracted, greater focus is required on drivers, scalers and accelerants of critical challenges to national security. But we cannot decouple the rise in geopolitical tensions – and their implications for defence priorities, societal resilience and spending – from the very real ‘whole of society’ and holistic security implications of the cascading effects of climate breakdown and biodiversity loss.

Many of the key drivers of instability and risk are environmental, and they are not ‘coming down the road’ but already happening. National security is more than ‘hard’ defence, it is food and energy security, migration flows, public health (physical and mental), nature, water and resource access, economic realities and cost of living, opportunities for young people, and more. Each are increasingly impacted by the interconnected climate and nature crisis. These highly politicised and emotive issues are set within a context of mis/disinformation and limited knowledge or understanding of the science among both the public and political decision-makers.

This six-month project, convened by the Agile Initiative and the Oxford Martin School, brings together Oxford University experts with politicians, policy makers and professionals in the climate, nature and national security space and beyond. It explores urgent evidence needs and use in response to the climate and biosphere emergency and its implications for UK national security.

Why this, why now?

With the publication of the UK’s national security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, NATO’s 2026 report on the effects of climate change on security, and momentum from the National Emergency Briefing on climate and nature, there is growing energy and attention on this complex area.

Policy makers and research funders are looking to the research community to provide evidence rapidly to answer increasingly complex questions at the intersection of climate, nature and national security. This is reflected in UK government priorities as well as planned spending on research and development.

This high-speed and ambitious project is truly requiring Agile to be agile, working iteratively to rapidly develop a multi-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder dialogue, bringing people together and mobilising them to work collaboratively on a forward-facing research agenda.

This project aims to:

• Unpack understandings of climate, environment and biodiversity in relation to national security among decision-makers and researchers, creating a baseline of understanding that enables effective communication and collaboration in this field.
• Work with policy and academic specialists to explore ‘demand signals’, knowledge gaps and opportunities at the intersection of climate, environment, and national security, especially around priority policy areas in the UK but recognising the global interdependence in all these areas.
• Identify a forward-looking research agenda that the interdisciplinary research community can act on with partners to respond to emerging risks at the intersection of the climate-biosphere crisis and UK national security.