How can the UK improve flood resilience in the Thames Estuary?

Coastal flooding is one of the most urgent challenges facing communities worldwide, threatening lives, homes and vital infrastructure. In England, the Environment Agency leads national efforts to manage this risk, with the Thames Estuary being a major focus: more than 1.5 million people and over £400 billion of residential property benefit from defences that are increasingly strained by rising sea level and extreme weather.

This project directly supports the Environment Agency’s Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) Plan by developing a new generation of flood-forecasting and risk-assessment tools. Working in partnership with the Environment Agency, we will contribute towards improving the accuracy of operational forecasts used to operate the Thames Barrier and aim to provide a clearer picture of how flood risk will evolve through the century. These advances will strengthen the UK’s resilience to weather and climate-driven flooding and provide approaches that can be used worldwide to protect people living in vulnerable coastal areas.

Why this Sprint? Why Now?

With sea-level rise accelerating and major infrastructure decisions needed, the timing could not be more critical.

This project will help the government to make better decisions about flood resilience for the Thames Estuary as well as inform nationwide long-term adaptation strategies. It will do this by improving the accuracy of current forecast methods and producing a flexible framework that can adapt as new data becomes available. It will create a unique opportunity to trial the use of recent advances in physics-informed machine learning in an operational way, working closely with the Environment Agency.

This partnership ensures that cutting-edge research delivers practical impact now, improving flood preparedness, informing strategic decision making, and cementing the UK’s position as a leader in coastal resilience.