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SDG: 16 Peace, justice and strong institutions

16 Peace, justice and strong institutions

As geopolitical tensions rapidly rise and public and media attention is increasingly distracted, greater focus is required on drivers, scalers and accelerants of critical challenges to national security. But we cannot decouple the rise in geopolitical tensions – and their implications for defence priorities, societal resilience and spending – from the very real ‘whole of society’ and holistic security implications of the cascading effects of climate breakdown and biodiversity loss.

Many of the key drivers of instability and risk are environmental, and they are not ‘coming down the road’ but already happening. National security is more than ‘hard’ defence, it is food and energy security, migration flows, public health (physical and mental), nature, water and resource access, economic realities and cost of living, opportunities for young people, and more. Each are increasingly impacted by the interconnected climate and nature crisis. These highly politicised and emotive issues are set within a context of mis/disinformation and limited knowledge or understanding of the science among both the public and political decision-makers.

This six-month project, convened by the Agile Initiative and the Oxford Martin School, brings together Oxford University experts with politicians, policy makers and professionals in the climate, nature and national security space and beyond. It explores urgent evidence needs and use in response to the climate and biosphere emergency and its implications for UK national security.

Why this, why now?

With the publication of the UK’s national security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, NATO’s 2026 report on the effects of climate change on security, and momentum from the National Emergency Briefing on climate and nature, there is growing energy and attention on this complex area.

Policy makers and research funders are looking to the research community to provide evidence rapidly to answer increasingly complex questions at the intersection of climate, nature and national security. This is reflected in UK government priorities as well as planned spending on research and development.

This high-speed and ambitious project is truly requiring Agile to be agile, working iteratively to rapidly develop a multi-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder dialogue, bringing people together and mobilising them to work collaboratively on a forward-facing research agenda.

This project aims to:

  • Unpack understandings of climate, environment and biodiversity in relation to national security among decision-makers and researchers, creating a baseline of understanding that enables effective communication and collaboration in this field.
  • Work with policy and academic specialists to explore ‘demand signals’, knowledge gaps and opportunities at the intersection of climate, environment, and national security, especially around priority policy areas in the UK but recognising the global interdependence in all these areas.
  • Identify a forward-looking research agenda that the interdisciplinary research community can act on with partners to respond to emerging risks at the intersection of the climate-biosphere crisis and UK national security. 

This Sprint investigates a critical and under-recognised consequence of climate change: the increased risk of childhood sexual abuse during and after climate emergencies across Eastern and Southern Africa. Led by Professor Lucie Cluver (University of Oxford, Department of Social Policy & Intervention), with co-leads Associate Professor Neil Hart (School of Geography & the Environment) and Associate Professor Seth Flaxman (Computer Science), the project brings together an interdisciplinary team of social scientists, climate scientists, and data scientists.

Working in collaboration with the Alliance for Child Protection in Humanitarian Action, the International Federation of the Red Cross, World Vision International and the University of Cape Town, the Sprint will provide urgently needed evidence on how drought and extreme heat affect risks of sexual violence against children and adolescents.

The team will combine climate and child protection data, using advanced computational methods, to generate new insights for real world policy impact. The team is committed to working with policy partners to co-produce accessible materials designed for direct use by humanitarian agencies and governments across Africa.

Why this Sprint? Why now?

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, extreme heat and recurrent drought are becoming more frequent. These conditions are associated with increased poverty, food insecurity, caregiver loss, and school closures – all known risk factors for violence against children. Already, one in five girls in the region experience sexual violence before age 18, with lifelong health, educational, and economic consequences. Yet there is almost no quantitative research examining the linkages between climate emergencies and child sexual abuse. This leaves governments and international agencies without the knowledge and tools required to prevent avoidable harm.

The Sprint addresses this evidence gap at a critical moment, as the climate crisis escalates and humanitarian actors seek new ways to anticipate and reduce its impacts. By generating clear, actionable evidence in collaboration with international partners, the project aims to ensure that climate resilience efforts centre the need to protect children from sexual violence. Meaningful impact will ensure we can contribute to a safer, more just, and more sustainable future.