Climate shocks and child abuse

breaking down disciplinary silos to strengthen child protection in climate-affected settings

When we began our Sprint in September 2025, the challenge seemed clearly defined: climate shocks trigger disruptions across households, communities, and public services, leading to increased risks of sexual violence against children. However, there was almost no quantitative research linking climate shocks to childhood sexual abuse, while frontline humanitarian workers found themselves facing that reality.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, floods, extreme heat and recurrent drought are becoming more frequent and intense (IPCC). These shocks are associated with increased poverty, food insecurity, caregiver loss, and school closures, which are all known risk factors for violence against children. Already, over one in five girls in the region experience sexual violence before age 18 (UNICEF), with lifelong health, educational, and economic consequences. Meanwhile, organisations responding to this crisis face compounding challenges: shrinking funding, changing donor prioritisation, limited capacity and cross-sector complexity.

The Sprint offered a unique opportunity to bring together an interdisciplinary team of social policy, climate and data scientists to improve computational methods to spatially link time-series climate variation data with child protection survey data. Through this collaboration, our team produced actionable evidence showing that drought and extreme heat are disproportionately affecting highly vulnerable groups of adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the need systematically to integrate violence prevention into climate action.

Our collaboration with The Alliance for Child Protection in Humanitarian Action – a global network of operational agencies, policymakers, donors and practitioners co-chaired by UNICEF, the International Rescue Committee and Hurras Network – addresses this gap at a critical moment, as the climate crisis escalates and humanitarian actors seek new ways to prevent and reduce its impacts. The Alliance partnership was an obvious fit. Child protection in humanitarian settings is a field that has historically operated in silos separating emergency and disaster relief, food support, and climate adaptation, with distinct organisational priorities, funding streams, and technical capacity. The Alliance straddles that divide institutionally, convening child protection actors globally and producing guidance that shapes practice on the ground.

Seizing the moment

The Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week in March 2026 presented an opportunity to present our work with our partner. The session we co-hosted with The Alliance brought together child protection specialists, humanitarian actors, policymakers and researchers to examine what the evidence now shows. Our findings are stark: drought is associated with a 46% increase in the risk of sexual violence against adolescents, with even higher risks among adolescent girls, particularly those married as children. The discussion highlighted that, despite being disproportionately affected by climate shocks, children remain underrepresented in the climate policy agenda. Limited integration across climate, education, social and child protection sectors risks leaving vulnerable adolescents without the coordinated support needed to prevent these risks in the face of escalating climate impacts.

Alongside evidence generation, we are developing operational guidance on integrating child protection considerations into anticipatory action and early warning systems. The aim is ambitious: to give climate preparedness and adaptation actors a practical tool for child-sensitive design, and to give child protection actors entry into conversations about early warning that had previously felt out of reach.

What comes next

As the Sprint closes in June 2026, the engagement it has generated remains open and expanding. The evidence linking climate shocks to child sexual abuse is substantially stronger than it was nine months ago. The operational guidance is being developed, the relationships with the Alliance, and its member organisations, are active.

What is still needed is for climate adaptation funding to treat child protection not as an add-on but as a structural component. Embedding child protection in climate adaptation is not an optional extra, but an essential condition for effective response.